cc: Chris Folland , Geoff Jenkins date: Fri, 07 May 2004 17:49:12 +0100 from: Simon Tett subject: 500 year simulation paper(s) to: David Roberts , Margaret Woodage , Andy Jones , Richard Betts , Tom Crowley , Keith Briffa , Tim Osborn , Phil Jones , Jason Lowe , Simon Tett , Philip Brohan , Jonathan Gregory Dear all, attached is the current version of my 500 year write up. I am considering the following strategy to write it all up. 1) Write paper (J. Clim/JGR/Clim Dyn.) on model simulations and the role that forcing plays in simulated climate variability. This would not have any comparison with proxy data nor any sea-level rise in it. I am planning to extend this run through to 2100 -- its happening now but I will rework the code to run on new super computer. Authors: Tett, Woodage, Roberts, Andy Jones, Crowley, Betts. 2) Short paper (GRL/Science/Nature) comparing simulations with verity of past data -- proxy data, boreholes and early instrumental. Period to be 1600 to 1875-1900 (avoiding period when large combination of anthropogenic forcings acting). To consider many uncertainties including proxy calibration and important forcing uncertainty (Volcanic & Solar). Authors: Tett, Brohan, Osborn, Briffa, Phil Jones, Crowley. Philip Brohan and others will write up a long paper on methodology with more examples. 3) Paper on sea-level rise: Gregory, Lowe and Tett All -- are you happy with this. Am I missing any tricks.... For 1) I need Margaret, David, Andy, Tom and Richard to verify the description of the forcings in the attached report is adequate. It would be good to think about figures to discuss the forcings used. For 2) Philip is developing the methodology. Tim -- I need the observed borehole timeseries and any uncertainties in it. It needs to be better than the exponential fit to data already been published. Phil I need some view on the early instrumental uncertainties -- should we just focus on DJF so the summer heating can be neglected? For 3) J^2 let me know what you need. Simon -- Dr Simon Tett Managing Scientist, Data development and applications. Met Office Hadley Centre (Reading Unit) Meteorology Building, University of Reading Reading RG6 6BB Tel: +44 (0)118 378 5614 Fax +44 (0)118 378 5615 Mobile: +44-(0)77 538 80696 I work from home about 2 days/week. Tel: +44 (0)20 8874 2751 E-mail: simon.tett@metoffice.com http://www.metoffice.com Attachment Converted: "c:\documents and settings\tim osborn\my documents\eudora\attach\demi035.pdf"