date: Thu Sep 21 09:32:31 2000 from: Phil Jones subject: Abstract to: MIKAMI Takehiko Takehiko, Here, in haste, is a brief abstract for the meeting. Meteorological Observations at Dejima from the viewpoint of diagnosing longer timescale climatic changes Phil Jones, CRU, UEA, UK During the 20th century the temperature of the world has warmed by 0.6 C. Many scientists believe that much of this warming is related to the build-up of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. However, to place the warming in a longer context requires the development of indicators of past change, particularly over the last millennium. Evidence of past changes is derived from natural (tree ring, ice cores, corals, sediments, glacier advances/retreats etc.) and historical (documents, diaries and offical accounts) archives. Proxy sources of this kind require calibration against instrumental records. In many parts of the world available thermometric data only extends back to the late 19th century, but earlier measurements for some regions may be hidden in European archives. Early instrumental data is the ultimate proxy source as it enables climate variability to be assessed for the whole annual cycle, rather than the growing season which is generally all that is possible from most natural archives. For Japan, China and Korea there is a wealth of historical and natural proxy evidence, but calibration against instrumental data is difficult as there is often little overlap between the two sources of information. Extending the instrumental record (as for Dejima) will enable the potential of the long 'official' Japanese diary sources (which extend back to AD 1600) to be realised. The talk will discuss many of the issues and show the results of the latest compilations of proxy evidence for the last millennium, work that is begining to rewrite our understanding of the period and challenging the accepted view (a Medieval Warm Period from AD 900-1200 and a Little Ice Age from AD 1450-1850). As we gain more evidence from different proxies and diverse regions the 'North Atlantic/European' evidence appears less appropriate from a global-scale viewpoint. The new studies show that the 20th century was both the warmest of the millennium and the warming during it unprecedented over the last 1000 years. Hope this is OK Cheers Phil