cc: "Lowe, Jason" , Lowe Jason , Tim Osborn , "S. Goswami" , Pamela Berry date: Thu, 16 Jul 2009 12:24:07 +0100 from: Rachel Warren subject: Impacts modelling output for AVOID: delivering the final report to: Nigel Arnell , Simon N Gosling , "Jesse O'Hanley" , Robert Nicholls , "Ramirez, Julian (CIAT)" Dear AvoidWS1 Impact Modellers: i.e. Nigel, Simon, Robert, Jesse, and Julian (cc Jason, Tim, Sudipta, Pam) Please find attached a format for our final AVOID report from WS1. As we are now into the holiday season, we all need to make strong efforts to advance sections whilst other team members are on holiday if we are to meet the deadline. PLEASE do your runs as soon as possible and enter the results into the final report, before and/or after you go on your holidays. PLEASE write TEXT to go with it. We need (i) BRIEF text on your modeling method (ABSOLUTELY 1 PAGE MAX) (ii) text interpreting the results, commenting on the differences BETWEEN the THREE TIME PERIODS. (iii) any caveats you want to make. When writing the text please bear in mind that: - The audience is not me, it's DECC/DEFRA, and they will not understand acronymns or terms from your discipline that you are very familiar with. Normally you would simply reference detailed information and expect the reader to go away and chase up the references. We can't do that here, as DECC/DEFRA will not have time to do that. So you need to explain anything important in these paras about model assumptions, not just reference papers. - There will be an appendix where detailed descriptions of the models and data used can go. - DECC will be very interested in having us INTERPRET the results for them. They expect US to do that. I need this TEXT AND RESULTS FOR THE STANDARD SET OF RUNS to be completed by AUGUST 12th AT THE LATEST. I am on a working trip to Australia from July 20th to August 12th. I know I can count on you all not to let the project slide whilst I am away. I will be on email, but there will be periods of a few days when I won't be accessing it, so if you have any questions, please try to ask me today or tomorrow. After August 12th, we will need to all work together on a summary section, cross-disciplinary discussion, otherwise finalise the report with input from DECC, and preprare presentational materials. In your STANDARD runs, use ClimGen output with ClimGen tuned to HadCM3. You should have all the downscaled climate data now needed to do the basic set of scenarios and thus fill in the standard impact tables and maps. These are based on the 50th percentile climate outcomes of the A1B scenario, the 5 policy scenarios, and the differences between them. I need to remind you that we also agreed to do some sensitivity studies (a, b) on ONE policy scenario. If you are relying on UEA to provide the downscaled climate, data to do (a) will be made available later in the summer. Tim Osborn and/or Sudipta Gosawmi will make that available to you. IF THESE ARE SENT OUT IN JULY PLEASE ALSO COMPLETE THE SENSITIVITY STUDIES BY AUGUST 12th. (a) 10% and 90% climate outcomes This means comparing the 10% A1B outcome with the 10% policy outcome, and similarly the 90% A1B outcome with the 90% policy outcome and subtracting the two. (b) On the same scenario, we are also committed to looking at what happens if we use a different GCM for downscaling. I suggest we use ECHAM4 for comparison. Some of you are also looking at outcomes for many GCM patterns. These can also be included in the report if they are available. The set of regions for which we will produce results is attached also. This was agreed by Jolene, Nigel and myself. [This may not apply to outputs from Jesse or Julian] I am also circulating this proposed format to DECC and will forward on any response that I recieve from them. If you want to suggest any changes to my proposed format, please let me know also. Best wishes Rachel -- Dr Rachel Warren NERC Advanced Research Fellow Tyndall Centre School of Environmental Sciences University of East Anglia Norwich NR4 7TJ Telephone 01603 593912 Fax 01603 593901 E-mail [1]r.warren@uea.ac.uk Content-Type: application/msword; name="FINALREPORTAVOIDWS1.1.doc" Content-Disposition: attachment; filename="FINALREPORTAVOIDWS1.1.doc" X-Attachment-Id: f_fx7e04cv0 Attachment Converted: "c:\eudora\attach\FINALREPORTAVOIDWS1.1.doc"