date: Thu Jan 9 12:52:31 2003 from: Mike Hulme subject: Re: DEFRA meeting - 17 January to: "Jonathan Koehler" Thanks Jonathan - do you intend to make the DEFRA meeting on stabilisation etc. on Friday 17th January? I know Terry is going and Alex also and me. I have put your name down anyway in case you can/do want to make it. Starts at 1030 at DEFRA I think. Mike At 10:41 09/01/03 +0000, you wrote: Mike, My view of Terry's concerns that he has expressed is that the funding so far does only provide for a pilot (disequilibrium) model. I am happy with this, because we are building a fundamentally new type of model, which will require considerable work before it functions properly, in particular the incorporation of non-linear technological change. There are many issues, such as Foreign Direct Investment, arrangements for technology transfer through the Kyoto protocol, the extension of the model to include other geographical regions besides the current US, EU, China (and now UK) split, for which extra money would have to be found. Jonathan Date sent: Thu, 09 Jan 2003 10:21:13 +0000 To: "Terry Barker (DAE)" From: Mike Hulme Subject: Re: DEFRA meeting - 17 January Copies to: alex.haxeltine@uea,j.kohler@econ.cam.ac.uk > Thanks Terry for your comments. I made the point about benefits explicitly > since although economists are usually on the look-out for costs&benefits, > environmental scientists who do some of the initial modelling work of > climate change impacts are not always so even-handed. > > Your other points about the scale of the economic modelling work are > interesting and I will bear them in mind, both in our FP6 meeting next week > in Amsterdam and also in the DEFRA meeting and other Tyndall meetings. > > I presume Jonathan shares your concern, although he has not expressed it in > quite such a direct way to me. > > See you next week, > > Mike > > > At 16:55 06/01/03 +0000, you wrote: > >Dear Mike > > > >The only comment on your note I have is on the 4th bullet point on > >impacts/adaptation. I suggest that it read "assessing any benefits of > >climate change", because costs and benefits are usually set off > >against each other. > > > >On a related matter, I am concerned that we in the Tyndall Centre > >do not have sufficient funding and resources for the construction of > >the global dynamic economy-energy model being proposed. I am > >hoping that the FP6 proposal will include something more to add to > >our present projects, but the proposal appears (from Annex A) to be > >relying on current economy models. However, the large models > >used in the TAR post-SRES stabilisation exercise all adopt the > >general equilibrium approach. > > > >I see an important role for Tyndall in developing a dynamic, non- > >equilibrium model, preferably with the capacity to simulate the > >historical world economy/energy/GHG emissions, so that the effects > >of e.g. oil prices shocks can be measured. This will add to the > >credibility of such a model and provide a challenge to the general > >equilibrium models. > > > >Our current projects are a start in this direction, but the actual global > >model is being developed on a shoe string. If I compare the > >resources that went into E3ME (a comparable model, but at an EU > >level rather than the world and for 5-10 years into the future rather > >than for the next 100 years) with those going into E3MG, there is an > >order of magnitude difference for a much bigger task. I fear that we > >may end up with a prototype model or a pilot study for a model. > > > >Ideally we would have a large E3 mitigation project here to > >supplement the Tyndall projects, but we clearly need to do more > >wotk on funding. Perhaps the DEFRA meeting will bring out this > >problem and suggest a solution. > > > >best wishes for the New Year > > > >Terry > > > > > >Date sent: Fri, 03 Jan 2003 15:17:51 +0000 > >To: > >tsb1@econ.cam.ac.uk,f.berkhout@sussex.ac.uk,n.adger@uea.ac.uk, > > "N.W.Arnell" ,alex.haxeltine@uea, > > e.tompkins@uea.ac.uk,j.kohler@econ.cam.ac.uk > >From: Mike Hulme > >Subject: DEFRA meeting - 17 January > > > > > --=====================_21341716==_ > > > Content-Type: text/html; charset="us-ascii" > > > > > > > > > Dear All,

> > > As promised, please find this short document attached which I intend to > > > submit to DEFRA ahead of the 17 January meeting.  This summarises > > > some thoughts and work relevant to the stabilisation/Article 2 Q David > > > Warrilow/IPCC is keen to promote.

Please let me have any > > > comments/additions etc. by Tuesday 7th January, since I need to > > > send it to DEFRA by next Wednesday.

Many thanks,

> > > Mike


> > >