From: Eystein Jansen To: Jonathan Overpeck , Keith Briffa Subject: Re: bullet debate #3 Date: Thu, 16 Feb 2006 00:28:11 +0100 This version is fine with me: At 12:03 -0700 15-02-06, Jonathan Overpeck wrote: >Hi again... thanks for the work on number #3. It >seems a bit awkward/vague, so how about: > >Taken together, the sparse evidence of Southern >Hemisphere temperatures prior to the period of >instrumental records indicates that overall >warming has occurred during the last 350 years. >The even sparser records longer than 350 years >indicate that there may have been periods of >regional warmth in the past 1000 years that were >as warm, or warmer than, 20th century means. > Eystein >Thanks, Peck > >>Third >> >>I suggest this should be >> >>Taken together , the sparse evidence of >>Southern Hemisphere temperatures prior to the >>period of instrumental records indicates that >>overall warming has occurred during the last >>350 years, but the even fewer longer regional >>records indicate earlier periods that are as >>warm, or warmer than, 20th century means. >> >>Fourth >> >>fine , though perhaps "warmth" instead of "warming"? >> >>and need to see EMIC text >> >>Fifth >> >>suggest delete >> >>Sixth >> >>suggest delete >> >>Peck, you have to consider that since the TAR , >>there has been a lot of argument re "hockey >>stick" and the real independence of the inputs >>to most subsequent analyses is minimal. True, >>there have been many different techniques used >>to aggregate and scale data - but the efficacy >>of these is still far from established. We >>should be careful not to push the conclusions >>beyond what we can securely justify - and this >>is not much other than a confirmation of the >>general conclusions of the TAR . We must resist >>being pushed to present the results such that >>we will be accused of bias - hence no need to >>attack Moberg . Just need to show the "most >>likely"course of temperatures over the last >>1300 years - which we do well I think. Strong >>confirmation of TAR is a good result, given >>that we discuss uncertainty and base it on more >>data. Let us not try to over egg the pudding. >>For what it worth , the above comments are my >>(honestly long considered) views - and I would >>not be happy to go further . Of course this >>discussion now needs to go to the wider Chapter >>authorship, but do not let Susan (or Mike) push >>you (us) beyond where we know is right. >> >>-- >>Professor Keith Briffa, >>Climatic Research Unit >>University of East Anglia >>Norwich, NR4 7TJ, U.K. >> >>Phone: +44-1603-593909 >>Fax: +44-1603-507784 >> >>http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/people/briffa/ > > >-- >Jonathan T. Overpeck >Director, Institute for the Study of Planet Earth >Professor, Department of Geosciences >Professor, Department of Atmospheric Sciences > >Mail and Fedex Address: > >Institute for the Study of Planet Earth >715 N. Park Ave. 2nd Floor >University of Arizona >Tucson, AZ 85721 >direct tel: +1 520 622-9065 >fax: +1 520 792-8795 >http://www.geo.arizona.edu/ >http://www.ispe.arizona.edu/ -- ______________________________________________________________ Eystein Jansen Professor/Director Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research and Dep. of Earth Science, Univ. of Bergen Allégaten 55 N-5007 Bergen NORWAY e-mail: eystein.jansen@geo.uib.no Phone: +47-55-583491 - Home: +47-55-910661 Fax: +47-55-584330