Arrhenius (1896) on Polar Amplification

Philosophical Magazine
Journal of Science

Series 5, Volume 41, April 1896, pages 237-276.

On the Influence of Carbonic Acid in the Air upon
the Temperature of the Ground

by Prof. Svante Arrhenius

(Excerpted from: 2-Arrhenius-1896.pdf, p.265, or p.29 as Adobe numbers the pages.)

A glance at this Table shows that the influence is nearly the same over the whole earth. The influence has a minimum near the equator, and increases from this to a flat maximum that lies the further from the equator the higher the quantity of carbonic acid in the air. For K=0.67 the maximun effect lies about the 40th parallel, for K=1.5 on the 50th, for K=2 on the 60th, and for higher K-values above the 70th parallel. The influence is in general greater in the winter than in the summer, except in the case of the parts that lie between the maximum and the pole. The influence will also be greater the higher the value of v, that is in general somewhat greater for land than for ocean. On account of the nebulosity of the Southern hemisphere, the effect will be less there than in the Northern hemisphere. An increase in the quantity of carbonic acid will of course diminish the difference in temperature between day and night. A very important secondary elevation of the effect will be produced in those places that alter their albedo by the extension or regression of the snow-covering (see p. 257), and this secondary effect will probably remove the maximum effect from lower parallels to the neighbourhood of the poles *.

* See Addendum, p. 275.